Baseline

The signal baseline is the 24-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) — the arithmetic mean of all recorded prices for an item within the last 24 hours.

Signal Direction

BUY  — Δ ≤ −threshold  (price below average → undervalued)
SELL — Δ ≥ +threshold  (price above average → overvalued)

Signal Tiers  (threshold = 2.0%)

WEAK	|Δ| ≥ 2.00%	(1× threshold)
──	|Δ| ≥ 6.00%	(3× threshold)
★	|Δ| ≥ 10.00%	(5× threshold)

Signal Strength

STRONG — order book buy volume > sell volume (demand pressure present)
NORMAL — otherwise

The Big Idea

We track the average price of each item over the last 24 hours. When an item's current price strays far enough from that average, we flag it as a potential trade opportunity. The minimum deviation to trigger any signal is 2.0% — small moves below this are treated as normal market noise.

Buy & Sell Signals

BUY  — the item is cheaper than usual right now. It may bounce back up — could be a good time to stock up.

SELL — the item is more expensive than usual right now. It may cool back down — could be a good time to offload inventory.

Signal Strength

The further the price is from its average, the stronger the signal.
★ starred signals are the furthest away (5× the base threshold) — the most significant moves.

STRONG means more players are actively buying than selling, which adds confidence to the signal.

In Plain Numbers  (current threshold: 2.0%)

Notice	price differs by 2.0%+ from average
Normal	price differs by 6.0%+ from average
★ Big	price differs by 10.0%+ from average

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Purpose

This tool is a market analysis aid that applies mathematical methods (Simple Moving Average deviation) to help identify potential price anomalies in the Warera in-game commodity market.

Not Financial or Trade Advice

Signals generated by this tool are based on historical price data and statistical thresholds. They do not guarantee profitable outcomes. Past price patterns do not reliably predict future movements.

Limitations

· Market data depends on polling frequency — rapid price moves between polls may be missed.
· Thin markets (few active traders) produce higher volatility and more noise signals.
· In-game events, wars, and server updates can invalidate historical baselines instantly.
· SMA windows are fixed (24h) and do not adapt to market regime changes.

User Responsibility

All trading decisions are made at your own discretion and risk. Use this tool as one input among many, not as the sole basis for any trade.