Baseline

The signal baseline is the 24-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) — the arithmetic mean of all recorded prices for an item within the last 24 hours.

Signal Direction

BUY  — Δ ≤ −threshold  (price below average → undervalued)
SELL — Δ ≥ +threshold  (price above average → overvalued)

Signal Tiers  (threshold = 2%)

WEAK	|Δ| ≥ 2.00%	(1× threshold)
──	|Δ| ≥ 6.00%	(3× threshold)
★	|Δ| ≥ 10.00%	(5× threshold)

Signal Strength

STRONG — order book buy volume > sell volume (demand pressure present)
NORMAL — otherwise

The Big Idea

We track the average price of each item over the last 24 hours. When an item's current price strays far enough from that average, we flag it as a potential trade opportunity. The minimum deviation to trigger any signal is 2.0% — small moves below this are treated as normal market noise.

Buy & Sell Signals

BUY  — the item is cheaper than usual right now.

SELL — the item is more expensive than usual right now.

Signal Strength

★ starred signals are the furthest away (5× threshold) — most significant.

STRONG — more buyers than sellers in the order book.

In Plain Numbers  (threshold: 2%)

Notice	price differs by 2.0%+ from average
Normal	price differs by 6.0%+ from average
★ Big	price differs by 10.0%+ from average

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Purpose

This tool is a market analysis aid applying SMA deviation to identify price anomalies in the Warera in-game commodity market. It also provides an Order Book view (top buy/sell orders) and candlestick price charts for visual pattern analysis.

Not Financial or Trade Advice

Signals, candlestick patterns, and order book depth are based on historical data and statistical thresholds. They do not guarantee profitable outcomes.

Chart Types

· Line chart — 1-min polling snapshots with 24h SMA overlay. Best for trend and signal tracking.
· Candlestick chart — snapshots bucketed into OHLC candles (bucket size scales with selected range). Green = bullish (close > open), red = bearish (close < open), amber dashed line = 24h SMA. Candlestick patterns do not indicate buy/sell signals — use the Signals tab for that.

Limitations

· Polling frequency limits — rapid moves between polls may be missed.
· Thin markets produce higher volatility and more noise signals.
· In-game events and updates can invalidate historical baselines instantly.
· SMA window (24h) does not adapt to market regime changes.
· Candlestick OHLC is derived from snapshot history, not tick-level data — wicks may not capture intra-poll extremes.

User Responsibility

All trading decisions are made at your own discretion and risk.